The broad rejection of the pension reform, which was illustrated during the massive demonstration on Thursday 19 January, is beginning to cast doubt on certain parts of the majority, to the point that deputies claim they will not vote for the text. In the context of a relative majority, where every vote counts to pass a law, this prospect is particularly troubling for the executive branch.
First defection to the assembly: the Macronist camp already divided
Several deputies from Macron’s coalition have indeed declared in the media that they apparently will not vote for the pension reform. This is especially the case for a group of Renaissance deputies, formerly from PS or EELV, grouped around Barbara Pompili and her micro-party “Common”. This former Minister of Ecology, a leading figure in Macronie, already declared last week: ” If I had to vote now, I could not vote in favor “, Referring to” social injustices “in the bill, insufficient consideration is given to inequalities between men and women and the employment of seniors.
She was to be followed by four other Renaissance deputies. While remaining more discreet, another fringe of the majority is from the Socialist Party, ” Progressive Federation “, threat of” turn to abstention and even vote against “. It could involve about fifteen elected representatives in its lap.
On the side of Renaissance’s coalition partners, Modemet and Horizon, dissenting voices are also heard. If the number of deputies who oppose the text is more limited, with only two officially refractory elected representatives, many mention the need to adjust the text due to the strong hostility it faces in public opinion. In anticipation of finding alternatives to finance the reform, Modemet has, for example, proposed extending the working hours from 35 hours to 35.5 hours, in order to increase the contribution amount. A huge attack against the working class, which was coldly welcomed by the government spokesman Olivier Véran, who forced the modem to withdraw during the day, but which testifies to the tensions that already exist in the Macronist camp.
Divisions also on the side of the Republican ally
In the house of The Republicans, with whom Emmanuel Macron has managed to agree to support his pension reform, a significant number of MPs are also reluctant to join the executive. The agreement reached by Eric Ciotti shakes up a party which, in the absence of political space, wants to separate itself from Emmanuel Macron.
According to JDD, at least 13 deputies would thus be ready not to vote for the reform. Grouped around Aurélien Pradié, the dissidents want to change the reform in the margin, especially on the minimum age. The likely use of Article 47-1 of the constitution, which plans to shorten the debates to just 50 days, crystallizes the discontent. With only 20 days of discussion in the Assembly and 15 days in the Senate, any disagreement between the LR and Macronists should be discussed in a few days by the Joint Joint Commission, a period too short for Aurélien Pradié
While the relative majority of the government consists of 249 deputies (members and dependents), the support of the 62 elected republicans is essential to achieve the 289 votes needed for the majority. But if we add up all potential rebels, nearly 40 MPs say they plan to oppose or abstain from voting for the law, threatening the executive with no majority for its pension reform. Moreover, the government will not be able to count on the LIOT group, another central force in the National Assembly and regular support of the government, to achieve a majority, which has declared its opposition to the reform.
Behind the consensus on age, there are still doubts about the method to make the reform acceptable
These numerous disagreements in the Macronist camp are surprising: these refractory deputies all supported Emmanuel Macron and supported the extension of working hours during the previous campaign. Similarly, pushing back the retirement age is an old obsession among Republicans and appeared on Valérie Pécresses’ program.
In reality, these tensions within the Macronist camp and the right express the fear of a social explosion in the face of a very unpopular reform and the massive protest expressed in the streets last Thursday. In this context, these deputies aim first and foremost to find adjustments to make the reform acceptable, while the accompanying measures proposed by the executive, from dealing with hardships to long careers, did nothing to reduce opposition to the reform. In fact, these adjustments in these measures are very limited, concern only a very limited number of people and, above all, do not compensate for the main effect of the reform, namely the postponement of the legal age to 64 years with 43 years of mandatory contributions.
Without abandoning the essentials and postponing it to 64, the action of the Macronist rebels is essentially aimed at finding measures to get the reform accepted. In this regard, the Renaissance Member of Parliament for Hérault Patrick Vignal declares about those who are over 60 and will soon be affected by the reform: ” we could offer them a bonus on these extra quarters, which would increase their pension a bit “. No repayment of the deferral until age 64, so only some extra help is offered to these marginal votes in Macronie.
Caught in the political crisis, Macron is fragile: let’s fight to bring him back!
The split of the Macronist camp must be taken seriously and testifies to the way in which the frailties caused by the political crisis are expressed in the face of the massive social dispute against the government. However, they could be reduced through negotiations with reluctant deputies. In the same way, the disagreements expressed by Aurélien Pradié could be mitigated now that the latter, newly appointed vice-president of the party, enjoys an electoral opportunity in the Republican apparatus.
In addition, the government intends to rely on all the anti-democratic mechanisms in the constitution, starting with article 47-1, which could be used to pass the law without debate in the assembly. In this context, to push it back, it is a huge balance of power that needs to be imposed, which involves building a broad sustained strike.
After the massive mobilization on January 19, there is an urgent need to work in this direction, based on the calls for a sustained strike by refiners or electricians and gas workers, and by preparing for a massive mobilization on January 31 at the base, at workplaces and campuses, which is a fulcrum for a departure in renewables in February along with the refineries!