(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris stock market is expected to open slightly higher on Monday morning for the first session of 2023, with investors making some purchases as the Paris stock market posted its worst performance in more than a decade last year.
Around. At 8.15 the ‘future’ contract on the CAC 40 index – delivery at the end of January – rose by 40.5 points to 6511 points, announcing a start to the session in the green.
For the full fiscal year 2022, the Paris market lost 9.5%, unheard of since 2011, while Wall Street suffered its worst annual performance since 2008, with a loss of more than 19% for the S&P 500.
All markets, all asset classes combined, experienced a difficult year in 2022 due to the shock of the war in Ukraine, the sudden rise in inflation and the severe monetary tightening orchestrated by the planet’s major central banks.
Investors now want to forget the last financial year in the hope that 2023 promises a slight improvement, which seems far from certain given the current conditions.
The first week of trading generally prints the general trend of the stock markets, but the stock indices may be looking for a trend at the beginning of the year.
While markets ended 2022 better than they started it, uncertainty remains high, especially in light of growing signs of a global economic slowdown, and investors remain in the spotlight of many headwinds.
All eyes will be on inflation, which now looks set to peak, if it hasn’t already.
The easing of inflationary pressures could lead the major central banks to slow down or even end their monetary policy tightening, which could mean that risky assets could regain some of their attractiveness.
However, the exchanges should remain sparse in the absence of many participants in this week of the new year.
In Europe, the morning of this Monday will be marked by the publication of the final PMI activity indices for the month of December, which should remind us that the euro area remains very exposed to a risk of recession in the first half of 2023.
Investors will have more indicators to digest at the end of the week, with in particular the closely watched US employment figures for December expected on Friday.
After last year’s underperformance, equity valuations have become more attractive, which could present a buying opportunity, especially in light of a limited and short-lived recession.
A small glimmer of hope, the CAC 40 index has never been in line with two consecutive years of decline since 1991, the only exception to the rule being the negative sequence that had characterized the 2001 financial years (-20.5%) and then 2002 (-32.1%) .
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