How many folders are actually blocking?

Brokers claim that today 45% of files are rejected due to too low attrition rates. “This number is very improbable (…) I deny it”, declared François Villeroy de Galhau on BFM Business. Who is wrong, who is right?

Are usurious rates blocking the market or not? On the one hand, brokers claim that 45% of files no longer pass. Blame it on the rise in nominal bank rates, which are now around 1.85% on average over 20 years. et al’vise that they form, more and more dense, with the rate of wear. The latter is the maximum interest rate, set and updated by the Banque de France every quarter, at which banking institutions are entitled to borrow. It is now 2.57% for maturities of 20 years or more and takes into account ancillary costs as well as insurance for the future loan.

A suffocation that François Villeroy de Galhau does not notice. “The mortgage remains very dynamic, we are at more than 6% growth,” he said on BFM Business. “Interest rates are rising gradually. In July we averaged 1.45% (…) Interest rates are still very favorable and the mortgage is still very well financed”. And he added regarding the rejection rates: “This figure is not very credible (…). I deny the figure of 40 or 45% rejection”.

Where is the reality? First of all, it must be understood that the brokers and the governor of the Banque de France do not have the same temporality. When the governor talks about 6% growth or a rate of 1.45%, he is talking about the credits that have actually been signed. So negotiated two or three months before. More specifically, as highlighted in the latest press release published at the beginning of September by the Banque de France on the subject, outstanding housing loans (in other words, all the loans that must be repaid by households and that have been taken out over the past few years months or years ago) rose 6.4% in July year-on-year (and 6.3% year-on-year in August). But the amount of new home loans falls sharply to 20.6 billion euros in August last year against 23.8 billion euros in August 2021, according to the first estimates. This is a decrease of 13.4% over a year.

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In addition, the figure of 1.45% on average for loans corresponds to TESE (effective interest in the narrow sense). However, the wear rate limit does not refer to this rate, but to TEG (global effective rate), also called APR (annual effective global rate). And in its press release, the Banque de France itself specifies that by “adding 60 basis points (0.60 percentage point, editor’s note) to the average value corresponding to the transition from TESE to TEG, the average exchange rate remains very significantly lower than the exchange rate of wear”. In other words, the TEG in July (according to the Banque de France) is already effectively around 2.05%.

For its part, the Housing Credit Observatory/CSA, which acts as a reference in the sector, estimates that the average interest rate for new loans (excluding fees and insurance) was 1.82% in August. But again, these are the rates for credits actually released, not the current market rates.

The brokers, on the other hand, talk about the offers at the moment T. “The average rates are still increasing by 1.5% over 15 years, 1.75% over 20 years and 1.90% over 25 years, but more banks are now posting rates above 2% over 20 and 25 years”, notes the broker Vousfinancer for the month of September. And it is still necessary to add the rates for the borrower’s insurance as well as the costs of file not to exceed wear and tear.

Credit files filtered upstream

Then the governor of the Banque de France notes that the applications were indeed rejected. The files which have been examined by a bank and which, after analysis, have been rejected. But today, many files don’t even pass this step. The banks reject them before analysis, only because the APR in simulation exceeds the attrition rate. Those files rejected even before analysis are not counted. If the Governor of the Banque de France does not see them, the brokers do.

Sandrine Allonier, who takes care of the communication of Vousfinancer, specifies for BFM Immo: “The files are filtered at different levels, which explains why the networks of real estate agents like L’Adresse at the end of the chain were not only 20% of the compromises broke this summer due to a loan refusal. First of all, there is self-censorship and the wait-and-see attitude of potential borrowers who postpone their project for fear of not being able to borrow. the broker: in certain agencies 70% of the simulations pass under it 1 . do not meet the wear and tear… therefore the files are not presented or not in the state. Then the banks refuse to take or study files because superior to usury or not in their criteria. And finally, the effective rejection by the banks, but the file can then presented a second time if they ask for more contributions for example, or with another edit, or can be reviewed… And all of a sudden will still lead to an agreement, but François V Illeroy de Galhau would not have known that it could have been a refusal without the effort of the broker or the banker, an effort that not everyone makes. This is why the concept of rejection rate is different depending on the actors and the number of filters that have been applied to the file before it arrived on the banker’s desk.

And this refusal to study the files on the part of the banks is a real problem. Not only will the individual not get his loan, but he will also not have his official rejection letter. But very often in sales agreements there is a clause which obliges the buyer to obtain several rejection letters if he does not have a loan, otherwise he pays a percentage of the sale price (often around 10%).

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