That energy crisis clearly not ready to quit. Started long before war in ukrainebut precipitated by this conflict, this unprecedented crisis has taken its tollelectricity explode like them gas. Fuel prices have also experienced a period of fever, but this seems to have eased a bit in recent weeks, with petrol trading around 1.6-1.7 euros/litre and the more expensive Diesel still around 2 euros/litre.
That said, some specialists agree that this apparent calm actually hides one big storm coming. Never has his tongue in his pocket, Damien Ernst came out of the woodwork and on his Facebook page he announced the color: the risk is high at to lose definitely Russian exports oil in the coming weeks and months as it has happened, which will cause a major oil crisis.
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The ceiling’s fault, but not only
Damien Ernst questioned on the pages of Sudpresse indicates that this risk is also generated by Western countries who wants to impose one Russian oil price ceiling. However, this possibility is openly rejected by Putin.
Therefore, if the Europeans were to impose the thing, it is more than likely that Russia would reduce its supplyselfwould cut completely, which of course would drive prices up. This coverage of the oil price is also part of new set of sanctions adopted by the Union this week. It is now also about putting a ceiling on the price of oil transported by sea. It will be effective from this the month of December.
That said, this specter of price caps is not not the only variable which could send oil prices skyrocketing. There are others, which unfortunately are quite numerous. E.g midterm elections in the United States (mid-November) could also push oil prices up. Because Joe Biden could exploit it strategic reserves American up to 1 million barrels per dayin order to maintain low prices for fuels on its market and thus securethe democrats’ election. Once the election is over, the reserves should be replenished, which would increase demand and hence prices. Unforgiving.
OPEC+ and China
Another exogenous variable: the countries inOPEC+ (the oil-exporting countries, of which Russia is one), who see a lot evil eye that drop in oil prices on the markets since mid-June. We know they now want to retain price per barrel at $100. But it’s currently $88, which for them is a miss winning. OPEC+ could therefore close the taps to raise prices to the desired level.
Finally, the last variable is put forward by Damien Ernest China and the possible economic recovery threatening in the Middle Kingdom. We could already see at the end of 2021 the impact of this recovery: a drastic increase in demand and thus in the need for energy. This projection is all the more likely as China now seems to want get out of its “zero covid” policy which has so far been impossible to implement.
What can you expect?
Of course from the consumer sidethat the impact of price increases is never immediate and there is always a delay. For the ULiège professor, the increase may happen, depending on the events either mid-November or March 2023 with the risk of, for example, heating oil rising from 1.2 euros/litre to 1.7 euros/litre. We therefore cannot imagine what the price of liters of diesel at the pump. Will we surpass 2.5 euros/litre ? It is not impossible.
Having said that, byother analysts is more careful still indicate Sudpresse and in particular on the side of ING who do not believe that China will get out of its politics in the near future” zero covid “. ONE Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is to be held next November, and that is where we will have to see what direction the country takes. For now, it is therefore complicated to predict anything, even if it is true the arrival of winter is not reassuring.