Did you think the summer of 2022 was unbearable? You are not ready for the end of the century

By the end of the century, summers will surely be even more unbearable than today. In France, it could be 5°C warmer on average than at the beginning of the 20th century.

The heat episode, with temperatures of 30°C, which hit France in mid-October, is one of the obvious manifestations of climate change. Human influence promotes the emergence of exceptional phenomena and amplifies the effects of natural climatic processes. Thus, it had never been as hot in Europe as in this summer 2022.

Unfortunately, this should not improve in the future. By the end of the century, summers will be even more unbearable. This is one of the conclusions of the work published in Earth System Dynamics October 4, 2022, forwarded by CNRS on October 17. At the end of the 21st century, summers could be average 5°C warmer compared to the decades 1900-1930 », sums up the CNRS. He states that the summer of 2100 will therefore probably be ” unsustainable “.

Predictions by scientists. // Source: Aurélien Ribes et al. 2022, “The Earth System. Dynam. », 13, 1397-1415 (CC BY-4.0)

To arrive at this estimate, the researchers carried out climate simulations using different scenarios, constructed by the IPCC, which made it possible to foresee the situation at the end of the century. They maintain the intermediate scenario where carbon emissions do not change radically (neither upwards nor downwards). This scenario, described as “mixed” by the CNRS, is what ” is most in line with the trends of the time “.

The IPCC proposes scenarios on a planetary scale. The purpose of these authors was to provide projections on the scale of France. For this, they also relied on data from weather stations across the country, dating back to 1899.

France in 2100, 3.8°C warmer than at the beginning of the 20th century

In this context, ” seasonal warming is estimated at 3.2°C […] in winter and 5.1°C in summer “, the authors write in their study, on the horizon 2100. They add that ” overall, winter warming and summer warming are projected to be about 15% lower and 30% higher, respectively, than annual mean warming for all scenarios and time periods “.

More generally, this work concludes that the impact of global warming promises to be much worse in France than expected. It could be 50% more intense than we imagined. ” France by 2100 could be 3.8°C warmer than at the beginning of the 20th century “, summarizes the CNRS, if current trends in carbon emissions continue.

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